Das Marktumfeld für Aktien sei laut Alex Rauchenstein, CEO bei der Strategic Advisors Group, speziell. Denn wenn man die großen Unternehmen der Welt sehe, die primär in den USA domiziliert sind, dann seien diese Unternehmen ziemlich stolz bewertet. „Deshalb glauben wir auch, dass die Chance, dass die großen Titel eine Konsolidierungsphase haben werden, groß ist“, sagt Rauchenstein im Gespräch mit Fundview. Auf der anderen Seite seien die mittelgroßen Werte in den USA, aber auch in Europa eigentlich günstig bewertet.
Wann genau dieser Trend sich drehe, sei nicht festzustellen. Jedoch sieht Rauchenstein die Lage eines Ballons ähnlich, bei dem man das zeitnahe Platzen erkenne, trotz der Unsicherheit des genauen Zeitpunktes. „Ein guter Physiker wird Ihnen sagen können, ab wann es langsam kritisch wird, aber nicht viel mehr. In etwa so verhält es sich in unseren Augen mit den Aktienmärkten“, sagt Rauchenstein und betont, dass es Fakt sei, dass das US-Gewicht im weltweiten Aktienindex, MSCI All Country World, mittlerweile 63,6 Prozent ausmache und im Vergleich dazu die USA aber nur einen Anteil von 25,3 Prozent am weltweiten Bruttoinlandsprodukt beitragen. Dieses Ungleichgewicht werde sich Rauchenstein zufolge früher oder später wieder ausgleichen.
„In unseren Augen sind sehr viele Tech-Titel, speziell im Bereich der Künstlichen Intelligenz, sehr stolz bewertet und nehmen heute bereits das sehr stark erwartete Wachstum der nächsten Jahre als sicher bereits vorweg“, sagt Rauchenstein. Entsprechend ertrage der Markt kaum etwas schwächer als erwartetes Wachstum ohne Enttäuschung.
Value aktuell attraktiver als Growth
Rein bewertungsmäßig erscheine Rauchenstein Value aktuell attraktiver als Growth, da die Differenz der beiden Anlagestile wieder sehr groß geworden sei und man im Falle von vielen Wachstumsunternehmen wieder bereits sehr viel zukünftiges Wachstum einpreise. „Wichtig ist für uns aber die Tatsache, dass wir bei unserem Anlagestil ‚Strategisches Value Investing‘ nicht einfach billige Unternehmen kaufen möchten“, erklärt Rauchenstein und führt aus: „Wir suchen dabei gezielt nach gut positionierten Firmen, die aufgrund einer Sondersituation an den Märkten zu einem Schnäppchenpreis zu haben sind.“
Aktuell sei Rauchenstein in drei Firmen investiert, die sich auf Reinigungen, Kantinen und Gebäudesicherheit spezialisiert haben. Eine davon sei die ISS aus Dänemark, die nebst Gebäudeunterhalt beispielsweise auch Kantinen betreiben und für Sicherheit sorgen. Dazu komme die Compass Group aus England, die neben dem Betreiben von Kantinen auch Reinigungstätigkeiten machen. Das dritte global tätige Unternehmen in diesem Bereich ist die Sodexo aus Frankreich.
Rauchenstein habe eine Liste von 300 Firmen bereit. Falls der Aktienkurs einer dieser Unternehmen auf ein bestimmtes Niveau fallen würde, erhalte Rauchenstein eine Benachrichtigung auf der Watchlist. Danach beginne ein erneuter Analyseprozess dieses Unternehmens. „Die Kriterien, mit denen wir die Watchliste angelegt haben, werden von unserer vier G-Regel beeinflusst: gutes Geschäft, gutes Management, gute Bilanz bietet einen guten Preis an“, sagt Rauchenstein.
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