It has been a while since we have seen so much excitement over a technological innovation. Whilst ChatGPT and its clones have rekindled debates on the place of human labour, looking beyond the technology’s strengths and weaknesses, we can assert the following points:
- It will take longer for people to adopt Chat GPT than is currently expected
- The chatbot’s business model does not have the profitability levels required by investors these days and seems therefore fragile in the current environment.
- The use of Big Data will continue to be central in the adoption of Generative AI technology.
- The necessity to skill and re-skill workers for Generative AI will rapidly increase, human capital (and skills obsolescence) issues will remain pivotal.
THE DESTINATION IS KOWN BUT NOT THE JOURNEY
We believe there is a glaring parallel between ChatGPT today and autonomous vehicles back in 2015. Back then, everyone was impressed by the quality of autonomous cars and the autopilots developed by Tesla and Google. But 7 years later, both car manufacturers and tech companies are back to earth. The technology will be ready one day but the human brain is still struggling to predict the exact timeline for these projects.
A BUSINESS MODEL AND STRATEGY OF THE PAST DECADE
Gearing Chat GPT on an industrial scale is no exception. Perhaps this advanced conversation tool is the future but its development strategy and model belong to the preceding decade (2010s) characterized by cheap money and exuberant markets. Companies burnt cash to be the first on their market and create favourable scale effects. Companies like Uber, Airbnb, DoorDash and Groupon spring to mind.
ChatGPT searches represent currently a huge cost for OpenAI, the company behind the technology. Yet, these searches still come for free. At this rate, OpenAI would have to spend over a billion dollars every year simply to meet internet users’ requests. R&D spending would then need to come on top. A monthly $42 charge could certainly lower the cost but users would expect a higher level of copyright protection and serious efforts to fight against disinformation. Unfortunately, this race for the limelight means any notions of energy efficiency are also relegated to the sidelines.
DOWNLOAD THE FULL ARTICLE
