Anleger befinden sich derzeit in der Zwickmühle: entweder sie senken das Risikoniveau erneut und reagieren damit auf die Verschlechterung der weltweiten Wirtschaftslage und einen Markt, der bereits um fast 15% nachgegeben hat, oder sie gewichten ihr Aktienportfolio neu und setzen dabei auf Unternehmen mit aktuell soliden Ergebnissen, die allerdings auch potenziellen Risiken ausgesetzt sind.
Um es konkret zu machen: die aktuellen Gewinnschätzungen für 2022 in Europa sind angesichts der schwächelnden Wirtschaft in China, der weltweiten Konjunkturabschwächung und des Energie-Angebotsschocks zu optimistisch.
Zum einen reagieren die Unternehmensgewinne in Europa auf Konjunkturschwankungen in China ebenso empfindlich wie auf die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in Europa, die unter der stark abflauenden Wachstumsdynamik in Deutschland leidet. Selbst wenn sich das chinesische Kreditangebot erholen sollte, werden die Auswirkungen der vorherigen Drosselung der Kreditströme das Wachstum in Europa kurzfristig weiter hemmen. Und das Vorgehen der chinesischen Regierung angesichts des jüngsten COVID-Ausbruchs dürfte diesen Gegenwind noch verstärken.
Zweitens ist auch die Abkühlung der globalen Konjunktur außerhalb Chinas keine gute Nachricht für die Gewinne in Europa. Das rückläufige Verhältnis von Auftragseingängen und Lagerbeständen im US-amerikanischen ISM-Index ist ein Frühindikator, der auf eine Verlangsamung des Gewinnwachstums im Euroraum hinweist. Das weltweite Exportwachstum sank von einem Vorjahreswert von über 20% dramatisch auf 5,5% und dürfte weiter abnehmen.
Und drittens können die gestiegenen Energiepreise nicht in ausreichendem Maße weitergegeben werden, um die Gewinnmargen der Unternehmen zu wahren. Die „Zweitrundeneffekte“ (Lohn-Preis-Spirale), die sich in den USA bereits bemerkbar machen, beginnen sich auch in Deutschland zu zeigen. In der Vergangenheit führte dies zu einem Rückgang der operativen Gewinnmargen.
Es kommt daher darauf an, in Unternehmen zu investieren, deren Gewinne stärker als die langfristige Inflationsrate wachsen. Gehen wir für dieses Beispiel einmal von 3% aus. Ein Unternehmen kann bei einem Gewinnwachstum von 10% das 16-Fache seiner Gewinne auszahlen und damit die Inflation über 10 Jahre ausgleichen. Bei einer Inflationsrate von 5% kann jedoch nur das 12-fache ausgezahlt werden. Der S&P handelt heute zum 19-Fachen der Gewinne, der STOXX600 zum 13-Fachen, allerdings mit historisch niedrigeren Gewinnerwartungen.
Man sieht, wie komplex die Problemstellung ist. Zum Aufbau eines robusten Portfolios empfiehlt es sich daher, günstig bewertete Unternehmen mit profitablen Wachstumswerten zu kombinieren. Denn eine Rezession ließe eine erneute Underperformance der zyklischen Sektoren erwarten, auch wenn diese niedrig bewertet sind. Und umgekehrt würde ein noch stärkerer Anstieg der Inflation den Wachstumswerten deutlich zusetzen.
Lassen Sie uns versuchen auszuloten, wo sich in diesem Umfeld mögliche Anlagechancen bieten.
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07/06/2022
ODDO BHF Asset Management
Eine komplexe Gleichung
Es kommt darauf an, in Unternehmen zu investieren, deren Gewinne stärker als die langfristige Inflationsrate wachsen.
Laurent Denize, Global CIO ODDO BHF Asset Management
